Blog No. 198: Climbing Mount Everest, Historian Allan Lichtman's Election Predictions, Lisa Bayne Astor

October 4, 2024

You can find additional content by clicking many of the images and underlined links below.

Climbing Mount Everest

*Climbing party 1924 Courtesy: Royal Geographic Society via Wikimedia Commons.*

Photo courtesy of Cory Richards and National Geographic

I have very mixed feeling about the documentary series Ultimate Survival: EVEREST: Team Discovery. On one hand, it was literally edge of your seat TV, excitement throughout each episode, living vicariously through this group of intrepid, determined climbers. I was totally engrossed and actually binge watched the whole six episodes in two days. This was footage where you actually felt like you were there, climbing alongside them, trying to traverse those treacherous ladders, hopping huge crevasses, fearing falling into the invisible hidden gaps underneath the snow and ice, out of breath from the endless steep inclines, dwindling oxygen, super high winds, freezing fingers and toes, frostbite, exhaustion, suffering through headaches and other symptoms of altitude sickness...You admire them for their sheer ability to endure, their bravery, their determination, their willpower and ambition.

But then something else comes up for me. Are these people out of their minds? What are they doing and why are they doing it? Do they have a death wish? Why is it so important to reach the top? What makes them push so hard? What are they trying to prove? And is this just borderline masochism?

I do not claim to be an athlete--forgive me for being naive--and I truly know nothing about it so it is hard for me to understand this deep drive to compete, to conquer, to defy pain and even death...I know for those who do attempt to conquer Everest, I am told that they feel that the most exhilarating way to embrace life is to risk death...a concept I have a hard time fathoming.

I hold these two thoughts in my mind: the utmost admiration at the same time thinking they must all be totally crazy...I would love to hear what you think about it...

For the hardworking Sherpas, the Tibetan natives to this region whose livelihood is to accompany the mostly rich climbers (it costs a lot to attempt to summit Everest), doing the heavy lifting: set ropes in truly treacherous terrain, schlep equipment, carry the heavy cannisters of oxygen and basically service the climbers in a multitude of essential ways, climbing has spiritual meaning--they call the mountain sagramatha (Mother of the Sky) or chomalunga (Goddess Mother of the World) and they revere her as sacred and a religious experience--before every expedition, a llama asks for permission to climb...They believe Mount Everest is a higher power.

Allan Lichtman Election Predictions

Photo courtesy Katie Couric and Allan Lichtman and Katie Couric Media

Katie Couric sat down with American University Professor Allan Lichtman on October 2, 2024 to talk about his predictions for the upcoming presidential election. Collaborating and teaming up with an acclaimed Russian scientist who was a predictor of earthquakes, Lichtman devised a system of 13 key questions or keys as he calls them and using this methodology has successfully predicted the outcome of every election (with one exception: Bush/Gore--which he argues was not an error on his part). These keys tap into the fundamental forces that drive elections and ignore the pundits, don't follow polls--for them it is the governing not campaigning that counts.

The methodology was developed by accident--after Lichtman met mathematician Vladimir Keilis Borok in 1981 at a university in California, the Russian leading authority on earthquake prediction from the Institute of Pattern and Earthquake Prediction in Moscow. Vladimir Keilis Borok loved politics and wanted to use the methods of earthquake predictions to predict politics but obviously couldn't use those skills in Russia ...They became the odd couple of political research. Combining their separate set of expertise and fields, they set out to reconceptionalize presidential elections in geophysical terms: They took a look at every presidential election starting with Abraham Lincoln's in 1860 through Ronald Reagan in 1980, using Keilis Borok's method of pattern recognition to see what patterns in the political environment were associated with stability and earthquake.

Here are the keys and how Lichtman has rated the situation and come to his conclusion:
1. Party Mandate: Does the incumbent party hold more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections? (False so it gets a score of -1).

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. (true)

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. (-1 false)

4. Third Party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign (true)

5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign (true)

6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms (true)

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy (true).

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (true)

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. (true)

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. False Score of -1 (he is attributing failure in the Middle East). This one and the next are difficult to call according to Lichtman.

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs (Ukraine is still standing and our NATO coalition is strong and has held together). (true)

12. Incumbent charisma: the incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (false hence score of -1)

13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (true)

When five or less items on the checklist are false, the incumbent party nominee is predicted to win the election (which is the case in this election predicting a Kamala Harris win) but when six or more items on the checklist are false, the challenging party nominee is predicted to win...

Final Score according to Lichtman's system: 4 false (negatives) predicting that Kamala Harris will win the 2024 ...Even if one of the foreign policy keys are poorly predicted and come out with negative scores, Harris would still win. Democrats need 6 negatives to lose...

A Visual Diary by Artful Home's Lisa Bayne Astor

Courtesy the Alembika blog https://blog.alembika.com/

Mesh Arroyo Dress designed by Lisa Bayne

I met Lisa Bayne Astor, one of the founder's of the beautiful catalogue The Artful Home at a recent overnight at Rancho La Puerta. She and her husband looked welcoming so I sat down at her table. Turns out she is a fashion entrepreneur and the designer of much of the clothing I have admired over the years in the Artful Home catalogue. She combines great style with a bit of whimsy, comfort and designs for women of all shapes and sizes...In addition, Artful Home features a beautiful mix of art, craft, and accessories.

Lisa and I got to talking and I realized that she is also a visual artist in her own right. I love the idea of a visual diary--always wanted to keep one myself and aside from a few years back when I was a teenager and my early twenties, I was never able to keep it up...She shared with me what got her started: "I began an illustrated journal shortly after my beloved Aunt Sandy died. She was like a mother/best friend to me, and she passed away in May of 2023. I had never journaled, and certainly had not painted with watercolors since art school 50 years ago. So this was all new, and became a daily practice, almost a daily meditation of sorts. It gave me a way to process my grief and my thoughts of Aunt Sandy, and gradually moved beyond Aunt Sandy and a way of reflecting on my day. It gave me an opportunity to pay attention more to my day, to my surroundings, and gave me great pleasure. It still does and I am still keeping up the practice." Here are a few of those drawings/entries that struck me...

Paintings of the Week

Sold these two pieces to a wonderful pr woman in San Diego. She wrote me this text after we placed these two pieces in her home: "OMG PAM! My son noticed it (he’s not talking yet) and pointed out and freaked out. He was “chatting” about it all throughout dinner (he’s not really talking yet 😂). And then when we put him to bed, he noticed right away and lit up babbling about the canvas over his crib 🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰. He woke up pointing at it and babbling, then at this one all throughout breakfast. He’s so connected to them 😭😭😭😭😭." I always say kids notice so much more than you think they do. This is the best endorsement yet!

Charity of the Week: Voters of Tomorrow

About The Author

New York City based contemporary artist, Pam Smilow, began writing the creative lifestyle blog “things we love” in an effort to foster a sense of community during times of isolation and reflection. To read more about her and her art, visit her website and check out the essay written by Frank Matheis entitled The Sophisticated Innocence of Pam Smilow.

Source: https://pamelasmilow.substack.com/p/climbi...